Scenario Simulation
Treasury Scenario Simulation
Static workshop simulator for FX movements, interest-rate shocks, working-capital growth, and import-volume increases across BSRM treasury.
Today · Live workshop data
Base Cash Forecast
৳ 1,203 Cr
30-day position
Before market and volume shocks
Debt Cost Base
9.35%
Weighted average
Across ৳2,180 Cr utilized facilities
Import Exposure
USD 24.5M
72% hedged
Scrap, billet, coal, spares
Liquidity Coverage
47 days
Base case
Cash plus undrawn facilities
Simulation Inputs
Demo Input
FX Rate Change
+৳3 / USD
Demo Input
Interest Rate Change
+100 bps
Demo Input
Working Capital Growth
+12%
Demo Input
Import Volume Increase
+15%
Simulated Treasury Impact
| Scenario | Assumption | Cash Flow | Debt Cost | Liquidity | Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BDT moves +৳3 | Import payments on USD 24.5M exposure | -৳7.4 Cr | No direct debt rate change | Coverage falls from 47 to 45 days | Unhedged USD 6.8M creates immediate downside | Simulated |
| Interest rates rise +100 bps | Applies to ৳2,180 Cr utilized facilities | -৳21.8 Cr annualized | +৳21.8 Cr per year | 30-day forecast drops to ৳1,181 Cr | Higher working capital cost pressure | High Impact |
| Working capital grows +12% | Inventory and receivable cycle expands for BSRM Steel | -৳146 Cr | +৳13.7 Cr annualized at 9.35% | Coverage falls to 42 days | OD and CC utilization moves into warning zone | Simulated |
| Import volume increases +15% | Scrap, billet, and coal imports rise for rolling/cement demand | -৳186 Cr LC funding need | +৳16.2 Cr if debt-funded at 8.7% | LC settlement queue rises to ৳471 Cr | BG and LC headroom tighten at HSBC and SCB | Simulated |
USD/BDT moves +৳3
Book USD forward cover
Interest rates rise +100 bps
Shift drawdown to EBL and negotiate SCB
Working capital grows +12%
Pre-arrange STL and collection push
Import volume increases +15%
Reallocate LC limits to EBL/City Bank